Saturday ProfileUkraine’s Premier Stumps for Her Turn at the Top
By CLIFFORD J. LEVY
IVANO-FRANKIVSK, Ukraine
SHE took the stage at a theater for one of her last speeches before Sunday’s presidential election, and the setting seemed apt: here was a politician as riveting and ambitious and unpredictable as any heroine in an epic play. Just her name — Yulia! — has become shorthand for her stardom.
But Ukraine may no longer be as eager to embrace Prime Minister Yulia V. Tymoshenko as it was during the 2004 Orange Revolution, when she led a pro-Western, anti-Kremlin movement. (And along the way, hit upon using a blond peasant braid as a nationalist statement.)
No matter that Ms. Tymoshenko once represented the hope that the countries of the former Soviet Union could build a stable, democratic future. She is trailing in the polls and trying to rouse supporters who are dispirited by a limp economy and Ukraine’s bickering government.
Even in this western region, an Orange heartland that is not far from the gates of the European Union, her aura appears to have faded somewhat. And so it was that Ms. Tymoshenko arrived in Ivano-Frankivsk on Tuesday and implored a gathering of several hundred people not to turn their backs on her.
She spoke of creating a Ukraine that looks toward Europe, of her plans for jobs, of her battles with many rivals over the years. It was her standard stump speech, but she delivered it with passion, speaking for nearly an hour, without notes. She pounded the lectern. She clenched her fist. And she touched her chest for emphasis and sighed.
“My goal in politics from the very beginning has been, and will be, the goal of giving Ukraine a chance to finally secure a firm footing in the world as a competitive, independent and real European state,” she said.
“I ask you in these final days to help Ukraine — and me — to help everyone who today has stood up to defend Ukraine,” she said. “I ask you, people who care about the soul of Ukraine, those who want to preserve the heart, the spirit and the faith of our country for future generations, to please defend it.”
MS. TYMOSHENKO, 49, may be the underdog, but her emphatic delivery underscores that she is by no means on the ropes. On Thursday, she threatened protests if the campaign of her opponent, Viktor F. Yanukovich, committed fraud, in what would be a repeat of the Orange Revolution. She charged that Mr. Yanukovich pushed through a last-minute amendment to the election law this week so that his campaign would have an advantage in the ballot counting. President Viktor A. Yushchenko, a former Orange ally of Ms. Tymoshenko who lost his bid for another term last month, sided with Mr. Yanukovich and approved the law.
Each side has accused the other of planning to steal the election, but given how disenchanted many people are, major demonstrations seem unlikely.
Ms. Tymoshenko has long had a reputation as an intense competitor, shifting her stances, alliances and images as she has risen through the ranks. Ukraine is split by a linguistic and geographic divide, and when Ms. Tymoshenko got her start in politics, she was a Russian speaker from the east with long dark hair. Now, she is a champion of the Ukrainian language, with its base in the western half of the country.
More recently, she has changed her tone toward neighboring Russia. Once a staunch critic of the Kremlin, she is promising to patch things up and has even praised Prime Minister Vladimir V. Putin.
Her detractors contend that Ms. Tymoshenko is a secret admirer of Mr. Putin and would govern as he has, with the same strong-arm tactics. They also say that her tendency to engage in political brawls undercuts her ability to govern.
“I do not believe that she is a democrat,” said Yosyp Vinsky, who was Ms. Tymoshenko’s transportation minister before resigning last year and accusing her of poor management and unethical behavior. (Her aides said he himself had ethics issues.)
“She is more of a P.R. expert than a real leader,” said Mr. Vinsky, who said he was not backing Mr. Yanukovich, either.
“And she is absolutely an autocrat who is willing to spit on the law and stamp on the Constitution.”
For now, Ms. Tymoshenko is struggling to close the gap with Mr. Yanukovich, a former prime minister who won the fraudulent election that set off the Orange Revolution and then lost the rematch. Once dismissed as a boorish Kremlin crony, he has undergone an image makeover of his own, positioning himself as more polished and independent of the Kremlin.
In the first round of the election last month, Mr. Yanukovich won by 10 percentage points. But no candidate received a majority, necessitating a runoff.
Mr. Yanukovich has focused on Ms. Tymoshenko’s role in the government, treating her as if she were the incumbent and asserting that voters should hold her responsible for Ukraine’s economic and political troubles.
Ms. Tymoshenko has ridiculed Mr. Yanukovich as a dimwitted pawn of Ukraine’s oligarchs. On Monday, he refused to take part in a debate against her. She appeared alone, calling him a coward. He later responded that she was a habitual liar.
In Ivano-Frankivsk on Tuesday, she mocked him for a verbal gaffe. He had told a crowd, “Gathered here is the best genocide in the country,” when he meant “gene pool.”
If Mr. Yanukovich were president, Ms. Tymoshenko said, he would be such an embarrassment that “who will agree to come to Ukraine to make investments, who will offer their hand to us?”
STILL, her visit here suggested the scope of her challenge. People at the theater, many of whom were educators, did not respond with notable enthusiasm, as if they had heard it all before. There were not many rounds of applause, and when someone tried to get the audience to chant her name, it petered out.
This in a region that is extremely unlikely to support Mr. Yanukovich, who is from eastern Ukraine.
Ms. Tymoshenko’s problem is that disaffected people here may not vote. To make matters worse, President Yushchenko, her former ally, is so angry with her that he is urging the public to cast ballots “against all” — a legal option.
In her speech, Ms. Tymoshenko assailed that advice. “Each of those votes is a vote for Yanukovich,” she said.
In the audience, a preschool teacher named Yelena Frezyuk, 30, listened intently but did not appear moved. She said she would vote for Ms. Tymoshenko very reluctantly because she was deeply disappointed in the Orange Revolution.
“There were a lot of promises, and very few carried out,” Ms. Frezyuk said.
But others said they adored Ms. Tymoshenko. Anna Yakimiv, 58, a university administrator, said, “We have hope only in her.”
But Ms. Yakimiv said she was nervous. “There is a great danger that Yulia will not make it,” she said.
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/02/06/world/europe/06ukraine.html
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